Role of mass media within the electoral processes and its effect on determining election outcomes. A case of Libya
Abstract
Aim: This research aims to examine the role of the mass media within the electoral processes and its effect on determining election outcomes while particularly taking the evidence from Libya
Method: The primary quantitative method was used and Smart PLS statistical software was used to analyse the primary data. The data was collected through the survey questionnaire with a sample size of 711. The test includes the composite reliability, discriminant Validity, outer loadings and the path analysis
Findings: The outer loadings results indicate that outer loads of all indicators except social media 3 are greater than the threshold indicating all the indicators of the study are significant. The research found that mass media mainly the newspaper, television and social media have the significant and positive effect on the election outcomes.
Keywords: mass media, electoral processes election outcomes, newspaper, social media, television
Introduction
The media coverage plays a fundamental role in election campaigns, by initiating a necessary connection between the candidates, political parties and citizens. It implies that media coverage is the crucial tool with which democracies operate to consolidate (Gerth, and Siegert, 2012). The media disseminates the candidates’ positions on key topics and their ideological plans through the coverage they provide in their reports. This information is vital for citizens, who will ultimately make their election choices (Matthes, 2012). Moreover, the contenders, their political parties, and their supporters run extraordinarily aggressive electoral campaigns to influence the public regarding voting. In today’s world, many contenders use the media to deliver their views to members of the voters in with the goal of positively impacting their decisions to support their parties. However, the opposition does not give up on obtaining the same number of votes as a portion of opposition use the media to spread their messages (Hansen, and Pedersen, 2014).
Furthermore, the media plays the fundamental role within the electrical process in Libya in promoting the democracy and notifying the public regarding the political events. Media environment of Libya has seen the significant growth after the fall of the Gaddafi regime with several media outlets are developing across the different sectors. Moreover, Altai Consulting, 2015) stated that , despite challenges related to threats to journalists’ safety and political stability, the media sector has shown the potential to reinforce the democratic transition by offering the unbiased, accurate and timely information . The existing literature provides information related to the role of the media towards the new constitution and political parallelism, however, a significant research gap exists regarding the role of the mass media in the electoral processes and its influence on the election outcomes. Considering that, the following research aims to examine the role of the mass media within the electoral processes and its effect on determining election outcomes while particularly taking the evidence from Libya. The following research significantly contributes to existing literature and also to Libya, as is a nation with a tumultuous political history and has contending with democratic transitions (OMAGU and ODIGBO, 2017).
The following is significant as examining the importance of mass media in Libyan elections can shed light on the larger dynamics of media’s impact on elections following a conflict or transitional states. Moreover, this is particularly significant for international organisations and policymakers aiming to encourage democratic growth in these situations. Evaluating the influence of the media on electoral outcomes might help to shape regulations for developing a more informed and active community, eventually contributing to Libya’s democratic consolidation. Considering the research aim, the research objectives are presented below:
- To examine the role of mass media within the electoral processes
- To access the effect of mass media on election outcomes in libya
- To provide recommendations to libya regarding effective mass media channels to promote accurate and unbiased election outcomes
Literature Review and Hypothesis development
Mass media denotes to the media technologies employed to circulate the information or news to a wider audience. The mass media’s main function includes communicating several messages through mass media channels including television, social media channels advertising, newspapers and magazines (Morris and Ogan, 2018). Moreover, the electoral procedures are the set of rules which define the process of the elections and referendums and the process through which results are determined (Obiefuna-Oguejiofor, 2018). This procedure includes all the voting aspects, comprising the occurrence of elections, who can stand as a candidate, who is allowed to vote, how ballots are cast and marked, how the ballots are counted, how votes transform into the election outcomes, campaign spending limits as other aspects that influence the election outcomes (Watenyera, 2014).
Concerning the role of the mass media in the electoral process, one of the key roles of media in the electoral procedure includes informing the voter regarding the parties, candidates and associated issues. The media offer the information required to make informed decisions through interviews news coverage and debates. Moreover, the information includes the track records, policy position and personal background of potential candidate. Following this, the media act as the vital intermediary between the public and political candidates and facilitate linking the information gap present in any democracy (Tenove et al., 2018). Conclusively, mass media have the crucial role in electoral process as it inform the voters regarding the parties, potential candidates and concern, serving as the fundamental intermediary in democracies.
Additionally, the role of mass media in the political process is critical for impelling public opinion, reassuring openness, and ensuring transparency in democratic nations. The media is vital to the electorate’s education regarding political parties, candidates, and concerns since it publicizes information through a variety of channels, including radio, newspapers, television, and social media channels. The mass media facilitates voters in making informed decisions during elections by circulating accurate and unbiased information (Aghamelu, 2013). Following that, the research study conducted by ISOLA, (2014) further elucidated that the media act as the supervisory body by monitoring the electoral procedure, containing reporting the indiscretions and holding the authorities responsible for their actions. Furthermore, the supervisory role encourages free and fair elections while assisting in preserving the reliability of the political system. Social media also promotes public discussion and debate, giving voice to differing opinions and a lively democratic culture.
Apart from the benefit that mass media provides to the electoral process, it also has disadvantages, bias in the political news coverage has a considerable impact on the preferences and opinion of voters. Media sources may have political agendas or prejudices that influence how they report on political situations and problems. Following that, this may result in biased reporting, which might distort public opinion and undermine the trustworthiness of the media. Furthermore, political figures or advertisers may exert influence over the media sources that affect their reporting and presentation (Eberl et al., 2017). The other issue includes false information as the increase in social media usage and online news portals, enable to spread the false information widely and quickly. This creates issues during the electoral procedure since false information impacts the perception of voters (Peisakhin and Rozenas, 2018). Moreover, the media also face issues related to the accessibility of information as political actors try to control the media sources to access the information which hinders the capability of media to report the news effectively and accurately (Vliegenthart and Skovsgaard, 2017).
Effect of mass media on election outcomes
Other than that, the media also shapes public opinion, as through the media coverage of political issues and events, it impacts the the opinion of voters. Television is considered as the key source of the political news for the voters therefore by law it should be neutral while reporting the political concerns. Since the 2010 General Election, television debates have taken on many formats, ranging from one-on-one discussions to seven-way discussions (Cushion and Lewis, 2017).
The Internet’s vast quantity, comprehensiveness, and depth of political information, encourage potential voters who are perplexed and discouraged from casting ballots due to the partiality and bias of traditional media’s political content (Martjanov, 2013). Moreover, the study conducted by Musiał-Karg, (2015) further mentioned that there are an increasing number of ways to communicate with users owing to the advancement of internet technology and the convergence of mass media. Propaganda representatives from the political field are among the first to employ new media tools. Furthermore, over the past ten years, the boundaries of the arena where political battles are fought specifically considering elections have grown to include both physical and virtual spaces.
The political campaign has been using new media platforms to gather funds as politicians are starting to take an active interest in learning about the interactivity of new media technologies in the election process. In addition, internet platform has been regarded as the active place to present their views and perception, regarding any political party (Howard et al., 2018). Following that, new media technologies enabled not just the manipulation of users’ perceptions, but also the organisation of social processes. Politicians aim to recruit supporters of their actions in order to obtain financial donations to help them achieve their objectives. Additionally, on their websites, candidates responded to inquiries from users on a regular basis. Politicians started to comprehend that maintaining a continuous online presence with people is a useful tool for both campaigning and learning about problems of importance (Sey, A. and Castells, M., 2015).
There is the existing case that defines the influence of media platform over the election. The Labour Party was cautious about its media image and considered it as an important aspect of its campaign. Rupert Murdoch, the head of the media, was approached by Tony Blair, who persuaded him to change the Sun’s a large audience allegiance to Labour. The campaign itself centred more on Blair’s charisma than the party platform. ‘New’ Labour was heavily emphasised over ‘Old’ Labour. This demonstrates how newspapers can affect election results by urging their readers to cast particular ballots (Chris Mullin, 2011). Following the case, the research study conducted by Aaldering et al (2018) stated that, newspaper support is fundamental for the success of the electoral process as newspapers are relatively associated with parties and are anticipated to lower mediated leader effects. Moreover newspaper, editorial process and article choice impact the less devoted voter over time.
Furthermore, the media, through its reporting of presidential elections and political advertisements, has the capacity to impact decisions about voting by accessing a considerable proportion of the public. Furthermore, the media, through its reporting of presidential elections and political advertisements, has the capacity to impact decisions about voting by accessing a considerable proportion of the public. The other case is that, US presidential election of 2016, voter knowledge and involvement in social media activities were discovered to influence voting decisions. Furthermore, it has been discovered that political bias present in newspapers during elections is correlated with election outcomes, with viewership mediating the connection between prejudice and votes (Groshek, and Koc-Michalska, 2017). Conclusively, that there are an increasing number of ways to communicate with users owing to the advancement of internet technology and the convergence of mass media. The key mass media aspect observed in the literature includes the newspaper, social media and television shapes the public opinion
Conceptual framework
Considering the literature discussed above, the conceptual framework and hypothesis has been developed below:
H1: Television have the significant impact on the election outcomes
H2: newspaper have the significant impact on the election outcomes
H3: social media have the significant impact on the election outcomes
Methodology
Considering the examination of the role of mass media within the electoral processes and its effect on determining election outcomes in Libya, the positivism research philosophy has been followed as it facilitates to provide the data collection and data analysis structure (Rehman, and Alharthi, 2016). In addition Clegg, (2016) further elucidated that the positivism approach is based on collecting and interpreting the data and forming a conclusion and it also assists in alleviating the errors in research outcomes. Further, the study has chosen quantitative design for this study. This design has been chosen, as it allows rigorous and robust results that can be measured. Also, the design is well suited to the research aim, as following quantitative design precise and measurable effects of mass media on election outcomes can be obtained (Watson, 2015).
Considering the data collection method the researcher has considered the primary data collection method, as this allows gathering first-hand new data, so that updated and real information about the preferences, perceptions of the voters and effects of mass media on election outcomes can be obtained from Libya. Specifically, the researcher gathered the primary data using a structured questionnaire survey, which was sent online to the participants (Amaya et al., 2015). The questionnaire was specifically, designed to collect information on different aspects or variables related to voter behaviour and their opinions, regarding the forthcoming election in Libya. Considering the sample size, a sample of 711 people, which was determined on the basis of the size of the population and the intended confidence level and error margin.
Furthermore, considering the sampling approach, the convenience sampling method has been followed for reaching out to the respondents, as it allows recruiting participants who are readily available nearby. Additionally, for the data analysis, the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique was chosen. This was done using the SmartPLS software, which is a robust tool for the analysis of the complex relationships between the variables using the structural model (Wong 2016). It enables both structural model evaluation and measurement model assessment, which makes it relevant for quantitative analysis. Moreover, the analysis includes the testing of the proposed hypothesis and the effect of different mass media channels on the preferences of voters and impacting their decision-making.
Analysis
Composite reliability
Composite reliability is generally regarded to variance caused by factor divided by the total variance of the composite (Padilla and Divers, 2016). The internal consistency measurement in smart pls is supported through the composite reliability measure. Considering the findings of Peterson and Kim, (2013), composite reliability refers to the extent to that indicators in the latent variable estimate the constructs. Furthermore the threshold for the reliability is considered to be 0.7.
Table 1 Reliability
Constructs | Cronbach’s alpha | CR (rho_a) | CR (rho_c) | (AVE) |
Election Outcomes | 0.898 | 0.900 | 0.936 | 0.831 |
Newspaper | 0.868 | 0.882 | 0.919 | 0.791 |
Social Media | 0.742 | 0.782 | 0.854 | 0.664 |
Television | 0.919 | 0.924 | 0.949 | 0.861 |
Table 1 which is present a below shows the reliability of following research along with Cronbach’s alpha. Considering the results presented above, it can be said that, the composite reliability and Cronbach’s alpha is above the threshold which is 0.7. The adequate value considered for the reliability is 0.7 (Fornell and Lacker, 1981). In this manner, the composite reliability value for election outcomes is computed as 0.900, while the reliability for newspaper is computed as 0.882. Moreover, the reliability for social media is 0.782, along with the reliability of television which is at 0.924. Thus, it can be stated that all the variables are reliable, considering the threshold of 0.7.
Discriminant Validity
Discriminant validity assures the each construct distinctiveness, supporting their individual identity. In other words, discriminant validity demonstrates whether a test which is used to examine a specific construct does not correlate with the test which examine different constructs (Albert et al., 2017). Discriminant validity was examined using the HTMT ratio which assist in elaborating the distinctiveness and to avoid the multicollinearity issue in the data. The HTMT ratio is required to be below 0.85 to confirm the Discriminant validity (Henseler et al., 2015)
Table 2 discriminant validity
Election Outcomes | Newspaper | Social Media | Television | |
Election Outcomes | ||||
Newspaper | 0.295 | |||
Social Media | 0.357 | 0.648 | ||
Television | 0.303 | 0.274 | 0.408 |
Table 2 presented above, shows the discriminant validity using the HTMT ratio, it has been identufued that discriminant validity of each construct considered for the research is lower than threehsold value. it is found that HTMT ratio of each construt is in the range between 0.274 to 0.648 which is lower than 0.85. therefore, it can be indictaed that discriminant validity exist in the model and there is no concern related to multi collinearity and elobrate the distinctiveness between the resaerch varaibles.
Outer loadings
Outer loadings demonstrates the correlation among the indicators and the estimated score of latent variable score. It can be defined that to what level the items attribute to their construct in the reflective assessment model by considering the outer loadings (Hair et al., 2012). Considering the findings of Wong, (2013), the accepted value for the outer loading indicator is 0.7. This suggests that, 0.7 is the minimum value which is acceptable to explain the outer loading criteria.
Table 3 Outer loading
election Outcomes | Newspaper | Social Media | Television | |
Election Outcomes 1 | 0.896 | |||
Election Outcomes 2 | 0.937 | |||
Election Outcomes 3 | 0.901 | |||
Newspaper 1 | 0.902 | |||
Newspaper 2 | 0.919 | |||
Newspaper 3 | 0.847 | |||
Social Media 1 | 0.887 | |||
Social Media 2 | 0.872 | |||
Social Media 3 | 0.667 | |||
Television 1 | 0.913 | |||
Television 2 | 0.926 | |||
Television 3 | 0.945 |
The results of outer loadings is presented in table 3, it can be seen that the outer load for the election outcomes are computed as 0.896, 0.937 and 0.901 respectively. As the obtained outer loadings are greater compared to threshold of 0.7 therefore, it implies that indicators are appropriate. Considering the other construct that is newspaper, the outer loadings for the indicators newspaper 1, 2 and 3 were computed as 0.902, 0.919 and 0.847 respectively. Since the outer loads are greater than threshold, it articulated that, all the indicators for the newspaper are significant. Furthermore, Social Media outer loadings are computed as 0.887, 0.872 and 0.667, this suggest that all the indicators are appropriate except social media 3, as the value computed is below than the threshold value of 0.7. Lastly, the outer loadings for the television 1, 2 and 3 were computed as 0.913, 0.926 and 0.945 correspondingly, implying that all the indicators of the television are significant.
R square value
The R squared is the measure of goodness of fit for the linear regression model. This measure states the percentage of variance that independent variable cause in the dependent variable (Adusei and Gyapong, 2017). Table 4 presented below, shows that the R squared value is computed as 0.135 which states that, regression model explains around 13.5% variance in dependent variable i:e election outcomes. This further indicates that independent variables i:e newspaper, television and social media account for 13.5% variance in election outcomes.
Table 4 R squared value
Election Outcomes | |
R-square | 0.135 |
R-square adjusted | 0.131 |
Path analysis
Partial least square (PLS) was employed with the purpose to reduce the variable or residual of model (Lowry, and Gaskin, 2014). In PLS, the path analysis was examined which is based on the closed system of developed associations among variables which were presented statistically by the structured linear regression equations series. Moreover, PLS path was used to examine and it is presented in figure 1 below and the path coefficient results are provided in table 5.
Table 5 path analysis
Path coefficient | P values | |
Newspaper -> Election Outcomes | 0.132 | 0.009 |
Social Media -> Election Outcomes | 0.163 | 0.002 |
Television -> Election Outcomes | 0.189 | 0 |
The follwing study results eluciadates the effect within the research varaible and the strength of realtion. According to Hair et al. (2014) explanations, the value of the coefficient indicates the level or strength of the interrelationship between the variables or the way the independent variable influences the dependent variable. Furthermore, Kock (2014) proposed that path coefficient value should be more than 0.1 to support or infer an effect of measure on another variable. In addition, significance level of 0.05 or 5% was used to access whether the impact of independent variable is significant or not.
The path coefficient results demonstrates that newspaper to election outcome’s coefficient is β=0.132 [p= 0.009 <0.05], this suggest that newspaper create the positive and significant impact on the outcomes of election. Moreover, the coefficient between the social media and election outcomes is β=0.163 [p= 0.002 <0.05]. This shows the presence of lower inter-relationship and elucidate the influence if former variable on the latent variable is positive as well as significant at 5%. Lastly, the coefficient for the social media and election outcomes is computed as β=0.189 [p= 0.00 <0.05] suggesting the interconnection of the social media with election outcomes is positive and significant. Therefore, the path coefficient and significance of variables indicates to accept the all three alternative hypothesis and reject the null hypothesis.
Figure 1 path analysis
Discussion and Hypothesis Assessment Summary [400]
Table 6 hypothesis summary
| Hypotheses | Status |
H1 | Television have the significant impact on the election outcomes | Accepted |
H2 | Newspaper have the significant impact on the election outcomes | Accepted |
H3 | Social media have the significant impact on the election outcomes | Accepted |
The aforementioned table 6 presented, shows the hypothesis summary of this research. The first hypothesis of the research was that, the television have the significant effect on the election outcomes in Libya, which is accepted considering the research findings, suggesting that television influence the behaviour and opinion, of voters. The findings are supported with the study conducted by Gordon and Hartmann, (2013), the study found that television advertising significantly and positively influence the presidential elections. The study also mentioned that, the majority of political campaign advertising budgets is allocated to television advertisements. Following that, Peisakhin and Rozenas, (2018) also found that Russian television had the major influence on the election outcomes in Ukraine by promoting the support for the political parties and candidates of pro-Russian. The persuasive impact of Russian television was determined primarily by its acquisition of political information, and merely those political views were transformed that were relevant to topics broadcast on Russian television.
Moreover, the results of the second is found be the positive and significant with respect to Libya. Similar to this, Moeller et al., (2014) also found that reading newspaper has the strongest influence on the voter’s behaviour among the other traditional news sources. Newspaper reading actively contribute in the communication process related to political information which has the strongest influence over the internal efficacy. In turn, internal efficacy in found be significantly predicts first-time voter behaviour. Following this, Kevin Schofield., (2017) also mentioned that magazines and newspaper are more effective and influential compared to social media in assisting the voters to make the informed decision during election.
The current study further founds that mass media particularly through social media positively and significantly impact the voter’s opinion leading to influence the election outcomes in Libya. The findings of current study are further supported with the study conducted by DiGrazia et al., (2013), which found statistically significant relationship between the more tweets related to the specific candidate for party on their subsequent electoral performance. Online social networking platforms provide a significant opportunity since they create huge amounts of information about the interaction behaviours and choices several individuals related to political candidate and party. Similarly, Groshek and Koc-Michalska, (2017) also found that, usage of social media in term of both time and format have the significant influence on increasing despite od decreasing network heterogeneity increased support for populist political applicants.
Conclusion
The focus of the current research is to examine the role of mass media within the electoral processes and its effect on determining election outcomes, while particularly taking the evidence from the Libya. The research identified that, there are some of the mass media aspect that impact the electoral processes further leading to impact the election outcomes. The key mass media aspect observed in the literature includes the newspaper, social media and television, considering, these aspects, the conceptual model for the current study was developed. Moreover, the method used was the quantitative research design, where the data was collected through the primary data collection method. The survey questionnaire was used where the data was collected from the 711 individuals. The Smart PLS statistical software was used to analyse the data and the test includes the composite reliability, discriminant Validity, outer loadings and the path analysis. The composite reliability results shows that all the variables are reliable, considering the threshold of 0.7. discriminant validity exist in the model and there is no concern related to multi collinearity and elobrate the distinctiveness between the resaerch varaibles. Moreover, the results of outer loadings indicates that outer loads of all indicators except social media 3 are greater than threshold, it articulated that, all the indicators of study are significant. Lastly, the results of path analysis demonstrated that mass media mainly considering the newspaper, television and social media has the significant and positive effect on the election outcomes.
Future Implications
The current research scope was to the role of mass media within the electoral processes and its effect on determining election outcomes in Libya. The findings shows the significant impact of the mass media on the voter behaviours leading to influence the election outcomes. Considering the aforementioned finding, it has the significant implications for the electoral process, the potential candidates and parties develop the strategies to be connected through the different mass media channels, which are fundamental for the democratic transitions success. Moreover, the Libya government is also required to ensure that media channels are free from the political intervention and the adequate resources to present the unbiased and accurate information to the public which is crucial for making the informed decision regarding voting.
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